Are you excited, apathetic or worried? A travel industry expert provides a detailed travel forecast for what鈥檚 to come:
This week, some health officials have said we will likely live in a post-pandemic world by the summer--if things continue to go the way we want them to.听
With this in mind, it won鈥檛 be a straightforward, fluid transition back to life as we knew it before COVID-19. Not only are many changes here to stay, but also other facets of daily life will see dramatic or subtle adaptations.听
When it comes to tourism, however, geopolitical factors will play an important role in international travel. So while Canada-wide travel might not feel drastically different, transborder travel will. Further, overseas travel will see听significant changes, particularly in developing countries.听Many developing countries are already feeling devastating听economic impacts from the loss of tourism, and these impacts will likely be felt long after travel opens up globally.听
Bryan Del Monte, aviation听and travel industry expert and president of The听Aviation听Agency, told听Vancouver Is Awesome听in an interview听that he expects travel to commence again this year. However, when that will happens depends on several factors.听
There will be a 鈥渢ravel boom鈥�
Despite many Canadians expressing anxiety about future travel, Del Monte says the lion鈥檚 share of former travellers will be听eager to book their next holiday when it is safe to do so. As he expressed, many people continue听to break government advice against travel听despite grave warnings, so it isn鈥檛 likely they鈥檒l feel hesitant to听board a plane听once they鈥檝e been given the green light.听
鈥淲hat I believe to be the case is that once vaccines are widespread and the ability to travel normalizes, there鈥檚 going to be a rush on the market,鈥� explained Del Monte.
鈥淓veryone is going to suddenly want to go everywhere.鈥�
When will the travel boom happen?
Del Monte said听that the pessimist in him sees travel opening up in the late third-quarter to early fourth-quarter of 2021 -- but he鈥檚听optimistic that it will open up again this summer.听
When this 鈥渢ravel boom鈥� will听happen exactly, of course, depends on several factors. 鈥淭he determinate is the rate of vaccination and the effectiveness of vaccination, and I think the proxies for those activities is the rate of serious cases, what we are seeing in terms of health infrastructure being overwhelmed by serious COVID-19 cases.鈥�
What听signs should we look out for to see听if travel is听opening up?
Del Monte gave three tripwires to look out for in the developed听countries.听
the direction听the average daily caseload is going
if听fatalities have dropped substantially
vaccination coverage--the 鈥渘ightmare scenario鈥� is if the death rate and case rate go up with the vaccination rate. However, he felt this is 鈥渦nlikely鈥� given the latest information听
Travel between Canada and the United States听
The ease with which Canadians enjoyed travel to the United States shouldn鈥檛 be expected right away. While the neighbouring countries enjoy a close relationship and the longest undefended border in the world, both governments have to consider the safety of their respective citizens. Again, Del Monte stated听that vaccination rates will play a critical role in when restrictions are lifted.听
Vaccination passport听
Right now, the United States and Canada do not ask for a vaccine passport when travelling between the two countries. Moving forward, this will likely become a requirement for travel between the two. Del Monte said that travellers听were already required to quarantine in certain circumstances prior to the pandemic. Similarly, travellers听were听required to have proof of vaccination for things like yellow fever to enter numerous听countries.听
Unruly vacationers听
Del Monte said many travellers听won鈥檛听have a sense of decorum when they return to the world at large. 鈥淧eople have been running around in their underwear and not showering before business meetings.
鈥淧eople say things online that they would never say in person. In Zoom and听by text people are different.鈥�
For about the first six to eight months after travel opens up, he says people should expect to see some unruly behaviour in vacation destinations.听
Prices won鈥檛 be as high as you might think
Despite the number of people who are chomping at the bit to hit the beach, Del Monte said travel operators aren鈥檛 likely to price gauge.
鈥淭hat would tick people off. If it used to cost $400 a day to visit Disneyland and now it costs $4000 a day, people will be mad.鈥�
You probably won鈥檛 be able to go when you want to
While you might not pay exorbitant听prices for your holiday of choice, you might not be able to enjoy it until 2022, if not later. 鈥淭he level of demand will be extremely high. They will be so busy for a year or longer; they鈥檒l be booked.听
鈥淭here鈥檚 going to be supply ration. It is literally going to be impossible for these companies to meet the demand as it comes.鈥�
The substitution effect
鈥淭he tide is going to lift all boats. Not everyone is going to get their number one choice,鈥� explained Del Monte, who adds that people may opt to try other travel experiences that they may not have chosen otherwise.听
The world at large听
鈥淚 would expect travel bans and a fair amount of political friction over who should carry the cost of providing vaccine to developing countries.鈥�
Del Monte noted that Canadians may still be prohibited听from travel to some places in the initial phases of travel reopening.
In other words, countries with听low levels of vaccination may be off-limits, despite offering that 鈥渙ff the beaten path鈥� experience you are dying to try.
How will travel companies fare?
鈥淭he question is not going to be why travel, it is going to be why travel with us.鈥�
Travel companies are going to have to influence people to choose them, explained Del Monte. There will be a demand, but companies will have to reemerge from this 鈥淟ord of the Flies鈥� situation and reintroduce themselves to market participants.听
鈥淭here鈥檚 a wave coming and you鈥檝e got to be ready to get up on the surfboard and ride it.鈥�
听
