Weyburn, Lloydminster, Wawota 鈥� Election night, 2019. Pipeline News asked four people from the oilpatch across the province what the results of this election mean for the oilpatch. Those results, of course, were a Justin Trudeau-led Liberal minority government.
The reaction was universally negative, and harsh. And most followed up with a good dose of support for western separation as a result.
Dextor Mondor is owner of Dirty Bird Oilfield Services, based in Carlyle. He lives in Wawota. Earlier in the day, he said, 鈥淚 can see the Conservatives getting a minority government.鈥�
By 9:30 that night, it was clear there would be a Liberal minority, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Asked what this means for the oilpatch, Mondor replied, 鈥淎 lot of uncertainty.
鈥淪ome old boys are going to be close to panic mode. Younger guys will look to do other things.鈥�
Age 37 himself, Mondor employs 13 people, from ages 19 to mid-50s. He thinks the Liberal win will eventually have an impact on his bottom line as part of a trickle-down effect from larger companies.
He felt at the time the resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois was having an impact.
鈥淚 can see us being back to the polls next spring, 2020,鈥� Mondor said.
Asked if western separatism is now an issue, he agreed. 鈥淗ow can we stay? Nobody out east cares about the West, but the West drives the economy 鈥� oil, ag and mining.鈥�
In Lloydminster, Marc Ouellette owns Olaco, Inc, a small trucking firm. He was active in the protests and convoy held in Lloydminster last winter. His co-organizer was Drew Lake, interviewed below.
Ouellette鈥檚 outfit used to employ five to six people. Now it鈥檚 down to two, and he ascribes some of that with the federal government. 鈥淒efinitely it had to do with government policies affecting everything with regards to the business.
鈥淚鈥檓 going to get up every day, and keep my head high. This will be difficult to visualize, the next three to four months.鈥�
While others we spoke to that night spoke of western separation, Ouellette said he鈥檚 not sold on that issue, yet. 鈥淏ut definitely, the sentiment will be 10-fold tomorrow morning.鈥�
Ouellette alluded to more activism in the near future.
Drew Lake is a lifelong oil and gas worker and former owner of Engage Energy Services in Lloydminster, a combo vac, vac and steamer outfit he sold last fall. The policies of the NDP government in Alberta and the Liberal government in Ottawa were a factor that drove that sale, making it hard to make a go of the business. He found that in three years under the Alberta NDP, his business shifted from 50/50 Saskatchewan/Alberta to 80/20. Similarly, while he said the federal government normally shouldn鈥檛 be a factor for the oil and gas industry, it has been.
鈥淚t shouldn鈥檛 be a big player. Overall, it should have little net effect, but they鈥檝e made it so,鈥� he said earlier on election day.
Regarding the possibility of a left-wing coalition forming government, Lake said, 鈥淚鈥檓 terrified. I鈥檓 not going to lie to you.
鈥淣ational unity hangs in the balance of this election today. Educated, reasonable individuals without hesitation would support separation. To me, it鈥檚 unbelievable that we鈥檝e gotten to this point.鈥�
That evening, Lake said, 鈥淪he鈥檚 not a good day. Unfortunately, I kinda suspected this was going to happen.
鈥淵ou鈥檝e got to consider what the oilpatch really is. The fact of the matter is it鈥檚 spurred by investment. I don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 too many investors out there, that are going to be very comfortable investing in Canada鈥檚 oilpatch right now,鈥� Lake said.
鈥淚f you were representing a group of investors, would Canada鈥檚 oil industry be a place you鈥檇 invest? I think the answer to that is a pretty solid 鈥楴o鈥� when you can compare it to other jurisdictions where investment is available. Look at Texas, the Permian Basin. Those are pretty safe investments, on a government policy perspective,鈥� he said.
鈥淲hen you look at it from a fundamental perspective, why on earth would you invest in production growth with no surplus export capacity? No surplus, whatsoever. We鈥檙e at the point where we have to curtail production to accommodate our existing export capacity. Investors are telling oil company CEOs that they鈥檙e not interested in production growth. They just want cashflow and returning it to the shareholders. That鈥檚 not good for a sustained economy. Basically, you鈥檙e stripping the guts out of the oilpatch for profits right now.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a sad state of affairs.鈥�
Western separation has been all over his social media news feed. Lake said, 鈥淔or years, there鈥檚 always been what you could call an extremist fringe. There鈥檚 been rumblings of western separation. Now you can go see your family doctor, your accountant, your grandmother鈥檚 friend at the coffee shop. These are very reasonable, educated, normal individuals who are saying there鈥檚 no longer a place for Alberta, or the west in general.
鈥淧eople can forgive the rest of Canada for putting Trudeau in power. You have to admit, his message was fairly refreshing, it was inspiring, in 2015, when he was elected. There鈥檚 a lot of us who weren鈥檛 happy about it then. But you could understand how people would vote for that sort of person and movement. But given the track record, and what we鈥檝e seen out of this government, it鈥檚 appalling the rest of Canada could actually give him another term, even though it鈥檚 a minority. It鈥檚 unfathomable, to most people in the West, that this could even be an option.
鈥淎nd I think it鈥檚 starting to make people realize that our fundamental differences across the geography of this land may be becoming more than we can sustain,鈥� Lake said.
John Prette spent most of his career working in the oilpatch, but for the last five years has worked in the auto industry. He works in Estevan and lives in Weyburn.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 know if I would go so far as to call it a death nell, but it鈥檚 a terrible result. A Liberal minority propped up by the NDP, I don鈥檛 see a path to getting a pipeline completed,鈥� Prette said.
Construction of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline is under way. 鈥淚f we can get it completed within the next 18 months, that still doesn鈥檛 address to me the investment that鈥檚 already left the country, and how difficult it would be to attract that investment back, in the presence of taxation policies that aren鈥檛 competitive with other oil producing regions.鈥�
Prette was referring the the U.S.鈥� clear advantage in corporate taxation. 鈥淚f I had to invest my money in the current regulatory climate, I鈥檓 going to invest my money in the U.S. where there鈥檚 a lot more certainty that I鈥檓 going to be able to complete that project and get my product to market.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think transporting our product ends with Trans Mountain. I don鈥檛 think one pipeline is all we need. I think we have to go east. It鈥檚 difficult for me to fathom the hypocrisy of not using Canadian oil while we鈥檙e using Saudi oil and all kinds of regimes that have less favourable environmental and human rights records. We should be striving towards energy self-sufficiency, just like our neighbours to the south did, and achieved it,鈥� he said.
With regards to western separation, Prette said, 鈥淢y social media has blown up with it.鈥�
鈥淪eparation, without a coastline鈥� I guess we could go to Hudson Bay. Manitoba could build a pipeline from Cromer to Churchill,鈥� he said.
鈥淚鈥檝e recently changed my opinion. Western separatism doesn鈥檛 mean forming a separate country. I have the view the coastline exists to the south. I think we鈥檇 be joining the U.S. I think that鈥檚 what separation really means,鈥� Prette said.
He thinks western separatism will be a real issue. 鈥淚 think people rightfully realize the country can鈥檛 survive another four years. Division within the country is unprecedented. Even Pierre Trudeau didn鈥檛 alienate the West as badly as Junior has.鈥�
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