After Mark Carney became the new leader of the governing federal Liberal Party, and the prime minister of Canada a short time later, we knew that a federal election was coming.
After all, he was riding a wave of popularity with Canadians – to be expected with a new leader – and he wanted to strike while his popularity was at its highest.
And now we're into an election campaign unlike any other in Canadian history.
In a normal campaign, it would be Carney and the Liberals versus Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party. The Liberals would explain why things are different now that they have a new (and much better) leader, while the Tories would counter with why Canada needs a change after a decade of Liberal governance. We'd hear the typical arguments on both sides, and Canadians would go to the polls in a few weeks and decide the next government in what should be a fairly tight race.
U.S. President Donald Trump and his repeated absurd calls for Canada to be the 51st state have changed that narrative. Trump is now the biggest opponent for Carney and Poilievre in this election. The biggest issue for so many Canadians in this election is who is best-suited to face the bringer of chaos south of the border.
Whether it should be the biggest election issue is another argument for another time. You might not like it, but it's the reality and the two parties have to adapt accordingly.
The public opinion polls have shown a marked switch in support. At the start of the year, Poilievre had a decisive lead on former prime minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. It appeared it might be the biggest victory in my lifetime for the Tories. Then Trudeau resigned on Jan. 6 and Carney routed the field in the Liberal leadership race. You knew that even without Trump's influence, the election was going to be very different with anyone other than Trudeau guiding the Grits.
It should be noted that new leader/new prime minister Kim Campbell and the Tories in 1993 and John Turner and the Liberals in 1984 had leads at the start of their respective election campaigns, and were defeated handily. But this time it feels different because it's not just about a new leader with the old regime.
The Tories have not handled the shift well. The "Sneaky Mark Carney" ads have not resonated at all with Canadians. The most effective election ad we've seen is the Liberals trying to connect Trump and Poilievre. Even though the Liberals take all sorts of quotes out of context, it's still had the desired effect.
When I watched the Tories' ad about what they would do if elected, standing up to Trump is the final thing mentioned (after seven other items). It should be the first. The Tories need to have ads dedicated to how they're going to stand up to Trump. And they need to put the Trump supporters in their place. If it means telling the Trump backers to go vote for the People's Party of Canada if they like the 51st state idiocy, then so be it.
In an ideal campaign, this election would be about whether people think a new leader for the Liberals will make a big enough difference to right the party, the poor decision-making of the past 9 1/2 years and the fiscal mismanagement.
In an ideal campaign, the Tories top priority would be going after the Liberals for being a tired, old government, and they would be explaining how they would do things differently. But they can't make it their top priority. Ideally, they would focus on Carney's lack of political experience or trot out "he didn't come back for you" ads that worked so well against Michael Ignatieff in 2011. But this isn't an ideal campaign.
Both parties have to explain how they'll fight the bully down south with his bizarre claims, and then worry about the opponents at home.
It's a campaign unlike any other. And if the Tories don't shift their strategy and their mindset, the Liberals could be governing Canada after the April 28 election – a thought that seemed nearly impossible three months ago.
